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22 THE NEW MIDDLE EAST few, limited in scope, carried out only when allowed by incumbent regimes, and dropped quickly when governments objected. After September 11, President Bush openly repudiated th

This text discusses the shift in U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East following the September 11 attacks. President Bush's declaration of aligning American values of freedom and security contrasted

38 THE NEW MIDDLE EAST must be clearly defined; in the Middle East, the concept of democracy promotion has fluctuated from aggressive rhetoric of regime overthrow at one extreme to small, little noti

The text discusses the fluctuating concept of democracy promotion in the Middle East, highlighting the confusion between promoting democracy and regime overthrow. It emphasizes the need for the U.S. t

Dealing With the New Middle East The Bush administration's attempt to shape a new Middle East has been a major factor in the emergence of the new and extremely problematic realities we have discussed

The Bush administration's policies have complicated the realities in the Middle East. A new approach is needed, prioritizing diplomacy and a clear understanding of U.S. limits in the region. Confronta

The weakness of the secular opposition is not entirely of its own making. Arab authoritarian and semi-authoritarian regimes—many of which have been ruling their societies in the name of secular ideolo

In Arab societies, secular opposition has struggled against longstanding authoritarian regimes that repress liberal ideologies, while conservative social attitudes limit their political expression. A

To be sure, engagement offers no guarantees of success. It is the Iranian government that ultimately must make a strategic decision to change its own policies. The best thing Washington can do is main

This text discusses the necessity for strategic dialogue between the U.S. and Iran, emphasizing the importance of Iran's willingness to modify its policies. It asserts that the U.S. should provide Ira

About the Authors MARINA OTTAWAY is a senior associate in the Democracy and Rule of Law Program and director of the Carnegie Middle East Program. Her most recent book, Beyond the Façade: Political Re

This section highlights the contributions of key authors associated with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Marina Ottaway, a senior associate, leads the Democracy and Rule of Law Program

nizations with local roots. They understand the importance and advantages of a decentralized system. They appear to have very little respect for the central government or even for Sunni politicians in

This text examines the intricate dynamics of Sunni political groups in Iraq amid changing power structures. Local organizations show a preference for decentralized systems, often in conflict with each

represented by the March 8 forces led by Hizbollah and the Syrian regime, seen as proxies for Iran and its policy of regional domination. The Syria–Lebanon cluster, in this view, is at the center of t

…Syria's influence, the balance of power remains intricate and deeply intertwined with sectarian and political interests within Lebanon. The situation is not merely a binary struggle of democracy versus tyranny, but a mu…

It is out of this reality of conflicting and changing political agendas that a political agreement would have to be forged to transform Iraq once again from a failed state into a functioning one. It w

This text examines the complex realities of Iraq's political environment following the fall of Saddam Hussein and the subsequent rise of Iran as a powerful regional entity. It highlights the challenge

Discrimination inevitably breeds discontent and resentment, and those certainly exist among Shi’i minorities in the Gulf and, of course, in Lebanon. The real question, however, is whether this resentm

The text examines the roots of resentment among Shi’i minorities in the Gulf and Lebanon, noting its implications for political activism. Discrimination and resentment have led to instances of violenc

REALTIES OF THE NEW MIDDLE EAST 13 always been the possibility that Syria could be coaxed and pressured into adopting more pragmatic policies. Revived U.S. efforts to relaunch the Israeli-Palestinian

The text discusses the political realities of Lebanon following Syria's withdrawal and the influence of Hizbollah and other political factions. Despite Syrian troop withdrawal, control issues persist,

to be cooperative on its own terms and for its own interests, but this does not mean that the United States is in a strong position to push Iran to comply with its requests, particularly at present. T

… in Afghanistan post-Taliban. Despite periods of potential collaboration, hostility is fueled by geopolitical interests and rhetoric, underlining the complexity of diplomacy in the region. The text further mentions the …

… who thrive in isolation. For this reason, a small but powerful clique with entrenched economic and political interests in the status quo will do everything in their power to torpedo attempts at reconciliation. By esche…

This text discusses the necessity of the U.S. focusing on Iraq to facilitate a U.S.-Iranian dialogue, aiming to retain Iraq's territorial integrity and mitigate civil conflict. It emphasizes the chall

retrenchment into a more ideological posture by a movement that has sought, but has so far been denied, a legitimate political role. The adoption and subsequent abandonment of the freedom agenda broug

The text discusses the complexities faced in promoting democracy in Arab nations, highlighting the influence of incumbent regimes resistant to political reform. It notes that, despite potential allies

the United States during 2007 has helped reduce violence, there has not been any corresponding political progress. Different Iraqi political figures and forces have competing and often changing vision

Post-2007, the United States achieved a reduction in violence in Iraq, yet significant political progress remains elusive. Iraqi political factions hold varying visions for the nation's future, with t

which ended conclusively with a UN-mandated cease-fire and eventually a return to the status quo, made it very clear that neither country could break the balance of power. By removing Saddam Hussein,

This text discusses the significant changes in the balance of power in the Middle East following the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq and the subsequent rise of Iranian influence in the region. The removal o

policy in Iraq and of the Palestinian–Israeli peace process. The United States needs to recognize that terrorism is not the result of blind hatred of Western civilization, as the Bush administration i

This text argues that U.S. policies in the Middle East must shift to address underlying political issues to effectively curb terrorism and ensure oil flow. It outlines critical tasks for U.S. engageme

REALITIES OF THE NEW MIDDLE EAST 15 tion of the international consensus, obscures a deeper problem: realities on the ground have already destroyed much of the viability of the two-state solution. The

The viability of the two-state solution in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is increasingly in question due to the weakened Palestinian leadership and diminishing trust between Palestinians and Israel

A new policy toward Syria also needs to recognize the country for what it is: a small country without massive ambitions or ideological crusades, trying to maintain some role in the region. The confron

This text discusses the need for a nuanced U.S. policy toward Syria, recognizing its limited ambitions while encouraging a shift away from its spoiler role in Lebanon and alignment with Iran. It furth

The Reality of the New Middle East The first step toward the formulation of a new policy is to understand the realities of the new Middle East as it is now. The three clusters of countries — Iran–Ira

The new Middle East is defined by three country clusters: Iran–Iraq, Lebanon–Syria, and Palestine–Israel, intertwined with issues such as nuclear proliferation and sectarianism. The U.S. faces not jus